Draft and there's-a-football-game-tonight thoughts:
- Erin went with Watt first overall. I don't think there could have been any other choice. His 2012 was the most dominating in the (5 year) history of the league.
- That said, a dominating year doesn't always mean another. Watt was the obvious pick but I don't know if he was a "safe" one. I'm kind of starting to dig into previous years stats (more on that soon). The top 10 LBs last year averaged 248.9 points with only a 21 point standard deviation. DEs (187.1 mean with a 55.8 sdev) are a much bigger boom-bust. This league rewards consistency (and randomness!). Logic says Watt can't put up another year like that, so we'll have to see how he compares to a top rated LB by year's end.
- Then Pat drafted Demarcus Ware at 2. If only I had written the above prior to that...
- Kuechly at 3. Rewards the kid for an outstanding rookie year. We like doing that. See Patrick Peterson first overall in 2012. By me. Did not work out so good...
- Speaking of me: fuck having the 16th pick. It is awful.
- Mr. Irrelevant this year was Kluwe. Then I turned all prescient and shit and dropped him 30 minutes later. As usual, a dude at home is way ahead of the Raiders.
- We start the year with two match ups featuring past trophy winners: Jeramiah vs. me and Whoot vs. defending champ Nick. ESPN says Jeramiah's the favorite. ESPN is stupid, though.
- Real football is on tonight! I like Denver, but the line is -7 1/2. Stay away from that one.
- Bears are -3 with Cincy in town Sunday. The Bengals are one of my AFC title game reps. Great DL, a top 3 WR, solid-if-not-Flacco-elite QB (who is probably better than Flacco), weak division. I think the Bears lose on Sunday.
- Remember when I said how good the Chiefs were gonna be last year?
As mentioned above, I'm off-and-on digging into previous years' data. Unfortunately, while ESPN keeps records of all previous years, their player data only goes back one. I should have pulled 2011 while I still could but figured that was up because it was the first year with our "final" scoring system. I'm still hoping to dig into team performances. Each individual game result is available all the way back to '09. That might take a while though.
As for this blog, I dunno. Just a place to type thoughts. Can you tell that I love this league?
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